Peter
Rautenbach

my objective

I love exploring the complex problems that face humanity. I am passionate about understanding ways in which we can better ourselves and the world we live in.  The world is becoming ever more complicated and I endeavour to shine a light on cross-disciplinary issues and threats where data is sparse or difficult to collect.  

My current research focuses on both AI governance and understanding how artificial intelligence affects nuclear risk with a particular focus on human decision making in a crisis. AI has the potential to shape much of the world in the coming decades and nuclear security is no exception. By understanding both the benefits AI could have for stability while simultaneously taking into account its limitations and inherent dangers I seek to help guide the integration of AI and nuclear technologies. My work seeks to combine the fields of nuclear strategy, artificial intelligence, and psychology, in order to provide a completely new, cross-disciplinary analysis of human decision making around nuclear weapons.

I come at these problems through a long term lens and the belief that the lives of future generations matter. Working to protect the world and the people who inhabit it today will safeguard it for those to come.

I am always happy to explore additional projects and look forward to hearing from you. Please reach out to me by email for any enquiries.

Publications

Publications

1. Rautenbach, Peter James M. (2023). Keeping humans in the loop is not enough to make AI safe for nuclear weapons. Bulletin of The Atomic Scientists. https://thebulletin.org/2023/02/keeping-humans-in-the-loop-is-not-enough-to-make-ai-safe-for-nuclear-weapons/#post-heading

2. Rautenbach, Peter James M. (2022). Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Command, Control, & Communications: The Risks of Integration. EA Forum. https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BGFk3fZF36i7kpwWM/artificial-intelligence-and-nuclear-command-control-and-1

3. Rautenbach, Peter James M. (2022). “On Integrating Artificial Intelligence With Nuclear Control.” Arms Control Today, 52(9), 23-26. https://www.armscontrol.org/aca/2008.

4. Rautenbach, Peter M., Reem Rashed Alnuaimi, Shawon Saha. (2022) “Impact of SMRs in Global Nuclear Development: To What Extent will the Global Spread of SMRs Increase the Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons?.” In 2021 NEREC Annul Report, edited by Man-Sung Yim, 221-234. NEREC: Daejeon. (DUE TO FILE SIZE CONSTRAINTS PLEASE CONTACT FOR FULL REPORT AND REFERENCES IF DESIRED)

5. Rautenbach, Peter. (2021). Conventional Arms Control and Nuclear Security: The Challenge of Conventional Prompt Global Strike Weapons. British American Security Information Council. https://basicint.org/conventional-arms-control-and-nuclear-security-the-challenge-of-conventional-prompt-global-strike-weapons/

6. Rautenbach, Peter James M. (2020). “The Threat of Conventional Weapons to Nuclear Security: A New Reality for Deterrence.” The Journal of International Analytics, 11(4), 56–71, https://doi.org/10.46272/2587-8476-2020-11-4-56-71.

7. Rautenbach, Peter. (2019). “The Subtle Knife: A discussion on hybrid warfare and the deterioration of nuclear deterrence.” The Journal of Intelligence, Conflict, and Warfare, 2(1).

Contributing Author

1. Rautenbach, Peter et al. (2021). Living with pandemics in higher education: people, place, and policy. In J. Bryson, L. Andres, A. Ersoy, & L. Reardon (Eds.), Living with Pandemics: People, Place and Policy, (pp. 47-59). Edward Elgar Publishing

speaking engagments

Doomed From the Start? Lessons From Nuclear Arms Control and What They Mean for Governing Military AI

Rethinking Nuclear Deterrence Research Network Arms Control and Emerging Tech Working Group DC Workshop (2023)

Spoke on the history of governing nuclear weapons and what lessons could be learned for the governance of AI with a focus on the military applications of AI technology.

Machine Learning & NC3: Risks of Integration

2022 NEREC Regional Workshop Europe (2022)

Spoke on the risks of integrating AI with nuclear weapon command systems. Explored the combination of technical aspects and the changing human-machine relationship in terms of decision making. 

Machine Learning and Nuclear Command: How the technical flaws of automated systems and a changing human-machine relationship could impact the risk of inadvertent nuclear use

ISYP Third Nuclear Age Conference (2022)

Spoke on the risks of integrating AI with nuclear weapon command systems. Explored the combination of technical aspects and the changing human-machine relationship in terms of decision making. 

US China Mutual Vulnerability and how it could reinvigorate non-proliferation

2021 NEREC Regional Workshop D.C. (2021)

Spoke on mutual vulnerability and its importance for nuclear stability. Provided ways in which it could be used to improve U.S. – China Relations.

Recent Activity

• (December 2023) Listed in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists “Best of 2023: Fresh takes from ‘Voices of Tomorrow’”

• (February 2023) Opinion piece on why keeping humans in-the-loop is not enough to ensure the safe use of AI in nuclear command systems published with the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

• (November 2022) Spoke at ISYP Third Nuclear Age Conferecne and NEREC Regional Workshop on risks of AI integration with NC3 systems.

• (Setpember 2022) Article on key risks associated with integrating Machine Learning with Nuclear Weapon Command published with Arms Control Today.

• (Summer 2022) Took part in the Cambridge Existential Risks Initiative (CERI) Summer Research Fellowship where I worked to understand both the benefits and strategic risks of integrating machine learning with nuclear command.

• (April 2022) Co-authored a article exploring the impact of SMRs on Proliferation

• (December 2021) Presented at the 2021 NEREC Regional Workshop in DC

• (November 2021) Graduated from the London School of Economics with a MSc in International Relations

• (August 2021) Completed the 2021 NEREC Graduate Fellows Program on nuclear non-proliferation and the safe uses of nuclear energy

• (July 2021) Published a article on conventional prompt global strike weapons & nuclear deterrence with BASIC

• (November 2020) Published a paper with the Journal of International Analytics on how emerging technology could degrade nuclear security