Peter
Rautenbach

my objective

I love exploring the complex problems that face humanity. I’m passionate about understanding how we can better ourselves and the world we live in. The world is becoming increasingly complicated, and I endeavour to shine a light on cross-disciplinary issues and threats where data is sparse or difficult to collect.

My current research focuses on AI governance and the impact of artificial intelligence on nuclear risk, with a particular emphasis on human decision-making in times of crisis. AI has the potential to reshape many aspects of the world in the coming decades, and nuclear security is no exception. By exploring both the potential benefits AI may offer for strategic stability and its limitations and inherent risks, I aim to help guide the responsible integration of AI into nuclear systems. My work brings together insights from nuclear strategy, artificial intelligence, and psychology to offer a new, cross-disciplinary analysis of human decision-making in the context of nuclear weapons.

I approach these problems with a long-term perspective and a firm belief that the lives of future generations matter. By working to protect the world and its inhabitants today, we help safeguard it for those yet to come.
In addition to my academic work, I offer research-based consulting services, grounded in evidence and designed to support decision-making in complex, high-stakes domains. Areas I consult on include:

• AI governance and risk assessment

• Strategic stability and nuclear decision-making

• Scientifically driven Wargaming and scenario design

• Cross-disciplinary policy analysis under uncertainty

• Novel Technology and Conflict Risk

I am always happy to explore additional projects and look forward to hearing from you. Please reach out to me by email for any enquiries.

Publications

Publications

1. Rautenbach, Peter James M. (2023). Keeping humans in the loop is not enough to make AI safe for nuclear weapons. Bulletin of The Atomic Scientists. https://thebulletin.org/2023/02/keeping-humans-in-the-loop-is-not-enough-to-make-ai-safe-for-nuclear-weapons/#post-heading

2. Rautenbach, Peter James M. (2022). Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Command, Control, & Communications: The Risks of Integration. EA Forum. https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BGFk3fZF36i7kpwWM/artificial-intelligence-and-nuclear-command-control-and-1

3. Rautenbach, Peter James M. (2022). “On Integrating Artificial Intelligence With Nuclear Control.” Arms Control Today, 52(9), 23-26. https://www.armscontrol.org/aca/2008.

4. Rautenbach, Peter M., Reem Rashed Alnuaimi, Shawon Saha. (2022) “Impact of SMRs in Global Nuclear Development: To What Extent will the Global Spread of SMRs Increase the Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons?.” In 2021 NEREC Annul Report, edited by Man-Sung Yim, 221-234. NEREC: Daejeon. (DUE TO FILE SIZE CONSTRAINTS PLEASE CONTACT FOR FULL REPORT AND REFERENCES IF DESIRED)

5. Rautenbach, Peter. (2021). Conventional Arms Control and Nuclear Security: The Challenge of Conventional Prompt Global Strike Weapons. British American Security Information Council. https://basicint.org/conventional-arms-control-and-nuclear-security-the-challenge-of-conventional-prompt-global-strike-weapons/

6. Rautenbach, Peter James M. (2020). “The Threat of Conventional Weapons to Nuclear Security: A New Reality for Deterrence.” The Journal of International Analytics, 11(4), 56–71, https://doi.org/10.46272/2587-8476-2020-11-4-56-71.

7. Rautenbach, Peter. (2019). “The Subtle Knife: A discussion on hybrid warfare and the deterioration of nuclear deterrence.” The Journal of Intelligence, Conflict, and Warfare, 2(1).

Contributing Author

1. Rautenbach, Peter et al. (2021). Living with pandemics in higher education: people, place, and policy. In J. Bryson, L. Andres, A. Ersoy, & L. Reardon (Eds.), Living with Pandemics: People, Place and Policy, (pp. 47-59). Edward Elgar Publishing

speaking engagments

Studying the Un-studyable: Using Experimental Wargaming ot Study Nuclear Decision-Making And AI

BISA Global Nuclear Order (GNO) Working Group Annual Conference (2025)

Spoke on experimental wargaming and synthetic data generation in nuclear research, outlining the benefits and challenges of their use as a social science methodology.

Doomed From the Start? Lessons From Nuclear Arms Control and What They Mean for Governing Military AI

Rethinking Nuclear Deterrence Research Network Arms Control and Emerging Tech Working Group DC Workshop (2023)

Spoke on the history of governing nuclear weapons and what lessons could be learned for the governance of AI with a focus on the military applications of AI technology.

Machine Learning & NC3: Risks of Integration

2022 NEREC Regional Workshop Europe (2022)

Spoke on the risks of integrating AI with nuclear weapon command systems. Explored the combination of technical aspects and the changing human-machine relationship in terms of decision making. 

Machine Learning and Nuclear Command: How the technical flaws of automated systems and a changing human-machine relationship could impact the risk of inadvertent nuclear use

ISYP Third Nuclear Age Conference (2022)

Spoke on the risks of integrating AI with nuclear weapon command systems. Explored the combination of technical aspects and the changing human-machine relationship in terms of decision making. 

US China Mutual Vulnerability and how it could reinvigorate non-proliferation

2021 NEREC Regional Workshop D.C. (2021)

Spoke on mutual vulnerability and its importance for nuclear stability. Provided ways in which it could be used to improve U.S. – China Relations.

Recent Activity

• (April 2025) Spoke at the 2025 BISA Global Nuclear Order (GNO) Working Group Annual Conference on Experimental Wargaming and Synthetic Data Generation in Nuclear Research

• (March 2025) Published an opinion piece in The Hill Times on how Canada can leverage its icebreaker expertise and current submarine procurement efforts to resist U.S. pressure.

• (October 2024) Started a part-time distance Politics PhD with the University of Leicester. Using wargaming, I explore the impact of decision support AI on human decision-making in a nuclear crisis.

• (June 2024) Began working with the Berkeley Risk and Security Lab as an affiliated adjunct researcher, contributing on a project basis.

• (December 2023) Listed in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists “Best of 2023: Fresh takes from ‘Voices of Tomorrow’”

• (February 2023) Opinion piece on why keeping humans in-the-loop is not enough to ensure the safe use of AI in nuclear command systems published with the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

• (November 2022) Spoke at ISYP Third Nuclear Age Conferecne and NEREC Regional Workshop on risks of AI integration with NC3 systems.

• (Setpember 2022) Article on key risks associated with integrating Machine Learning with Nuclear Weapon Command published with Arms Control Today.

• (Summer 2022) Took part in the Cambridge Existential Risks Initiative (CERI) Summer Research Fellowship where I worked to understand both the benefits and strategic risks of integrating machine learning with nuclear command.

• (April 2022) Co-authored a article exploring the impact of SMRs on Proliferation

• (December 2021) Presented at the 2021 NEREC Regional Workshop in DC

• (November 2021) Graduated from the London School of Economics with a MSc in International Relations

• (August 2021) Completed the 2021 NEREC Graduate Fellows Program on nuclear non-proliferation and the safe uses of nuclear energy

• (July 2021) Published a article on conventional prompt global strike weapons & nuclear deterrence with BASIC

• (November 2020) Published a paper with the Journal of International Analytics on how emerging technology could degrade nuclear security